With the NBA lottery draft order being decided tonight, I think this is a good time to throw out an idea I’ve been mulling over for quite some time. Tell me if I’m off base, right, or something in between.
In the months leading up to the 2004 NBA draft, the Orlando Magic, holding the first pick, had to choose between Emeka Okafor and Dwight Howard. Okafor had proven himself to be a star in college. Howard was the unproven prospect with limitless potential who was coming straight to the NBA from high school. The Magic, of course, chose Howard. And it was the wise choice. Okafor is a decent role player. Howard is a superstar.
In terms of entry-level hiring, the Okafor candidate would get hired over the Howard candidate at basically every law school. The reason why, I think, is because GMs and scouts of the NBA, NFL, etc. think that being “talent evaluators” is the best way to improve their team. Hiring committees, on the other hand, opt to be “talent predictors.” If my hunch is true, it's a big mistake.
Let me explain the difference. Talent evaluators look at the entire candidate—their skill-set, ambition, love for the craft, personality, etc., AND past performance to make an assessment into how one will perform in the future. Talent predictors look almost solely at a candidate’s past performance as the predictor of future performance. Talent evaluators can see the potential in guys like Cam Newton, LeBron James or Bryce Harper. Talent predictors would never get behind any of those three, but would vouch for guys like Ron Dayne, Kellen Moore and Shane Battier.
The sports analogy does not perfectly fit with the legal academy. But I use the analogy as a launching pad for a discussion concerning whether hiring committees are looking at their duties in the best way.